League phase 2026/27
10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining league phase using the Dixon-Coles xG model (ρ = -0.038). Top 8 qualify for the round of 16, 9th–24th go to the knockout play-offs, 25th–36th are eliminated. Ties are broken with UEFA's league-phase criteria.
Fixtures to play
90
54 played
Teams
36
8th place needs
15 pts
80% range 14–16 pts
24th place needs
9 pts
80% range 9–10 pts
| # | Team | P | Pts | GD | xPts | Outlook | Top 8 | 9th–24th | Out | 1st | Fair odds (Top 8) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real MadridElo 1616 | 3 | 9 | +5 | 18.1 | 88.2% | 11.8% | <0.1% | 22.9% | 1.13 | |
| 3 | LiverpoolElo 1568 | 3 | 9 | +5 | 17.6 | 82.3% | 17.6% | <0.1% | 17.2% | 1.22 | |
| 7 | ArsenalElo 1634 | 3 | 7 | +4 | 17.4 | 82.2% | 17.7% | 0.1% | 18.0% | 1.22 | |
| 1 | ParisElo 1583 | 3 | 9 | +9 | 17.1 | 80.2% | 19.7% | <0.1% | 16.2% | 1.25 | |
| 2 | Aston VillaElo 1527 | 3 | 9 | +9 | 15.7 | 62.9% | 36.8% | 0.3% | 7.3% | 1.59 | |
| 8 | BarcelonaElo 1638 | 3 | 6 | +5 | 15.4 | 61.7% | 37.1% | 1.2% | 5.6% | 1.62 | |
| 14 | Bayern MünchenElo 1669 | 3 | 5 | +5 | 14.8 | 54.8% | 43.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.83 | |
| 10 | Man CityElo 1619 | 3 | 6 | +4 | 14.9 | 52.1% | 46.0% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 1.92 | |
| 5 | Real BetisElo 1519 | 3 | 9 | +3 | 15.1 | 46.0% | 52.8% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.18 | |
| 13 | B. DortmundElo 1565 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 13.4 | 27.8% | 66.0% | 6.1% | 0.7% | 3.59 | |
| 6 | StuttgartElo 1541 | 3 | 7 | +5 | 13.2 | 26.8% | 66.4% | 6.8% | 0.9% | 3.73 | |
| 9 | ComoElo 1565 | 3 | 6 | +5 | 12.1 | 17.2% | 70.9% | 11.9% | 0.5% | 5.82 | |
| 16 | AtletiElo 1537 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 12.1 | 16.7% | 69.9% | 13.5% | 0.2% | 6.01 | |
| 11 | Club BruggeElo 1508 | 3 | 6 | +3 | 11.9 | 15.5% | 68.2% | 16.3% | 0.3% | 6.45 | |
| 20 | InterElo 1599 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 11.9 | 15.3% | 69.8% | 14.9% | <0.1% | 6.56 | |
| 12 | Sporting CPElo 1527 | 3 | 6 | +3 | 12.1 | 15.0% | 70.7% | 14.3% | 0.3% | 6.67 | |
| 18 | PSVElo 1512 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11.0 | 8.1% | 66.4% | 25.5% | 0.1% | 12.38 | |
| 19 | VillarrealElo 1533 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10.7 | 7.9% | 65.5% | 26.6% | <0.1% | 12.61 | |
| 15 | RomaElo 1563 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 10.5 | 7.3% | 64.3% | 28.4% | <0.1% | 13.76 | |
| 28 | Bodø/GlimtElo 1540 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 10.8 | 6.5% | 62.8% | 30.7% | 0.0% | 15.41 | |
| 17 | ShakhtarElo 1481 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 10.1 | 4.2% | 59.8% | 36.1% | <0.1% | 23.92 | |
| 21 | Man UtdElo 1531 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9.8 | 4.2% | 56.5% | 39.3% | <0.1% | 24.10 | |
| 22 | NapoliElo 1538 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 10.0 | 3.8% | 58.8% | 37.3% | 0.0% | 26.18 | |
| 30 | LeipzigElo 1525 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9.9 | 3.3% | 53.6% | 43.0% | 0.0% | 30.21 | |
| 27 | LensElo 1531 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9.4 | 2.3% | 49.0% | 48.7% | <0.1% | 44.05 | |
| 26 | FeyenoordElo 1482 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9.0 | 1.8% | 42.3% | 55.9% | 0.0% | 56.18 | |
| 29 | AEK AthensElo 1516 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9.0 | 1.7% | 41.9% | 56.4% | 0.0% | 59.88 | |
| 23 | GalatasarayElo 1485 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9.0 | 1.7% | 45.0% | 53.3% | 0.0% | 60.61 | |
| 24 | LASKElo 1482 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 8.9 | 1.1% | 41.9% | 57.0% | 0.0% | 88.50 | |
| 31 | FenerbahçeElo 1536 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 7.8 | 0.5% | 26.9% | 72.6% | 0.0% | 200.00 | |
| 25 | SabahElo 1512 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 7.5 | 0.5% | 25.0% | 74.5% | 0.0% | 204.08 | |
| 33 | VikingElo 1492 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 7.3 | 0.3% | 27.2% | 72.4% | 0.0% | 303.03 | |
| 35 | LilleElo 1503 | 3 | 0 | -6 | 6.7 | 0.2% | 19.9% | 79.9% | 0.0% | 416.67 | |
| 34 | PortoElo 1524 | 3 | 0 | -4 | 6.5 | 0.1% | 18.9% | 81.0% | 0.0% | 666.67 | |
| 32 | Slavia PrahaElo 1506 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 5.1 | <0.1% | 6.3% | 93.7% | 0.0% | 3333.33 | |
| 36 | S. BratislavaElo 1498 | 3 | 0 | -12 | 4.1 | 0.0% | 2.7% | 97.3% | 0.0% | — |
Sorted by Top 8 probability; # is the current table position. Fair odds = 1 / probability (no margin). Simulated 30/10/2026, 20:53:15 UTC.