12:30 UTC
Chelsea
Man Utd
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.90–1.39
Home Win
49%
Draw
23%
Away Win
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
Home win · Chelsea
Model
49.0%
Bookie
52.2%
Edge
-3.2%
Consensus of 25 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.7%)
Premier League · Matchday 9 · 31 Oct – 2 Nov
Home/Away win > 62% or Over 2.5 > 70%
No fixture on this matchday clears the conviction thresholds — the model sees them as close calls.
draw edge ≥ 3 pp · xG total ≤ 2.5 · both defences ≤ 1 · Dixon-Coles ρ -0.038
None of the 11 priced fixtures fits: no tight, defensive matchup where the model rates the draw clearly above the market.
12:30 UTC
Chelsea
Man Utd
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.90–1.39
Home win · Chelsea
Model
49.0%
Bookie
52.2%
Edge
-3.2%
Consensus of 25 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.7%)
15:00 UTC
Man City
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Likely 2–1 · xG 2.13–1.13
Home win · Man City
Model
59.9%
Bookie
58.4%
Edge
+1.5%
Consensus of 25 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.7%)
15:00 UTC
AFC Bournemouth
Leeds United FC
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.71–1.27
Home win · AFC Bournemouth
Model
47.4%
Bookie
44.9%
Edge
+2.5%
Consensus of 25 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.6%)
15:00 UTC
Coventry City FC
Sunderland AFC
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.01–1.20
Away win · Sunderland AFC
Model
39.9%
Bookie
40.8%
Edge
-0.9%
Consensus of 25 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.8%)
15:00 UTC
Hull City AFC
Ipswich Town FC
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.69–1.06
Home win · Hull City AFC
Model
51.6%
Bookie
36.3%
Edge
+15.4%
Consensus of 25 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.6%)
15:00 UTC
Brentford FC
Nottingham Forest FC
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.72–1.20
Home win · Brentford FC
Model
49.2%
Bookie
46.4%
Edge
+2.7%
Consensus of 25 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.8%)
17:30 UTC
Tottenham
Crystal Palace FC
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.68–1.31
Home win · Tottenham
Model
45.9%
Bookie
61.6%
Edge
-15.8%
Consensus of 25 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.7%)
20:00 UTC
Aston Villa
Fulham FC
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.70–1.15
Home win · Aston Villa
Model
49.8%
Bookie
48.7%
Edge
+1.1%
Consensus of 25 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.7%)
16:30 UTC
Liverpool
Arsenal
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.28–1.44
Away win · Arsenal
Model
40.4%
Bookie
40.1%
20:00 UTC
Newcastle United FC
Everton FC
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.69–1.12
Home win · Newcastle United FC
Model
50.3%
Bookie
41.2%
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 16 |
| 4 | Liverpool |
Edge
+0.3%
Consensus of 25 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.7%)
Edge
+9.1%
Consensus of 25 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.7%)
| 8 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 11 |
| 8 |
| +3 |
| 15 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
|---|
| 6 | Brentford FC | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 11 |
|---|
| 7 | Leeds United FC | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
|---|
| 8 | Newcastle United FC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 |
|---|
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
|---|
| 10 | Hull City AFC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
|---|
| 11 | Everton FC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
|---|
| 12 | Ipswich Town FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
|---|
| 13 | AFC Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 |
|---|
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
|---|
| 15 | Fulham FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
|---|
| 16 | Man Utd | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 7 |
|---|
| 17 | Crystal Palace FC | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 7 |
|---|
| 18 | Nottingham Forest FC | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 |
|---|
| 19 | Coventry City FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 |
|---|
| 20 | Sunderland AFC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
|---|