Serie A · Matchday 10 · 31 Oct – 2 Nov
Home/Away win > 62% or Over 2.5 > 70%
Sun 1 Nov
11:30 UTC
Home win 72%
Most likely 2–0 (12%) · xG 2.37–0.80
Home win · Como
Model
72.1%
Bookie
73.1%
Edge
-1.0%
Consensus of 24 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.0%)
Mon 2 Nov
19:45 UTC
Home win 67%
Most likely 2–0 (12%) · xG 2.14–0.83
Home win · Atalanta
Model
67.0%
Bookie
64.1%
Edge
+2.9%
draw edge ≥ 3 pp · xG total ≤ 2.5 · both defences ≤ 1 · Dixon-Coles ρ -0.038
None of the 10 priced fixtures fits: no tight, defensive matchup where the model rates the draw clearly above the market.
14:00 UTC
Bologna
AC Monza
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.88–0.95
Home win · Bologna
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 25 |
| 2 | Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 25 |
| 3 | Roma | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 21 |
| 4 | Como | 9 | 6 |
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.5%)
Model
58.7%
Bookie
55.6%
Edge
+3.1%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.1%)
17:00 UTC
Udinese Calcio
Roma
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.01–1.79
Away win · Roma
Model
55.2%
Bookie
61.5%
Edge
-6.3%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.0%)
19:45 UTC
Milan
Inter
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.31–1.69
Away win · Inter
Model
45.9%
Bookie
47.4%
Edge
-1.6%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.0%)
14:00 UTC
Frosinone Calcio
Torino FC
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.78–1.53
Home win · Frosinone Calcio
Model
43.6%
Bookie
44.1%
Edge
-0.5%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.1%)
14:00 UTC
Lazio
Cagliari Calcio
Likely 1–0 · xG 1.80–0.92
Home win · Lazio
Model
57.8%
Bookie
65.7%
Edge
-7.9%
Consensus of 24 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.0%)
17:00 UTC
US Lecce
Genoa CFC
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.04–1.19
Away win · Genoa CFC
Model
38.8%
Bookie
39.4%
Edge
-0.6%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.0%)
19:45 UTC
Juventus
Napoli
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.34–1.08
Home win · Juventus
Model
42.2%
Bookie
42.0%
Edge
+0.1%
Consensus of 24 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.9%)
17:30 UTC
US Sassuolo Calcio
ACF Fiorentina
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.45–1.57
Away win · ACF Fiorentina
Model
40.2%
Bookie
40.2%
Edge
+0.1%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.2%)
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 17 |
| 8 |
| +9 |
| 20 |
| 5 | Milan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 18 |
|---|
| 6 | Frosinone Calcio | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 17 |
|---|
| 7 | Napoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
|---|
| 8 | Juventus | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 |
|---|
| 9 | Torino FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
|---|
| 10 | Cagliari Calcio | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 13 |
|---|
| 11 | Bologna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
|---|
| 12 | Atalanta | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 |
|---|
| 13 | Genoa CFC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
|---|
| 14 | US Lecce | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
|---|
| 15 | US Sassuolo Calcio | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 8 |
|---|
| 16 | AC Monza | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 7 |
|---|
| 17 | Udinese Calcio | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 5 |
|---|
| 18 | ACF Fiorentina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 5 |
|---|
| 19 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 5 |
|---|
| 20 | Venezia FC | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 3 |
|---|