Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · 31 Oct – 1 Nov
Home/Away win > 62% or Over 2.5 > 70%
Sat 31 Oct
17:30 UTC
Home win 67% · Over 2.5 75%
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · xG 2.66–1.25
Home win · Bayern München
Model
67.2%
Bookie
71.2%
Edge
-4.0%
Over 2.5 goals
Model
74.8%
Bookie
75.9%
Edge
-1.1%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.2%)
draw edge ≥ 3 pp · xG total ≤ 2.5 · both defences ≤ 1 · Dixon-Coles ρ -0.038
None of the 9 priced fixtures fits: no tight, defensive matchup where the model rates the draw clearly above the market.
14:30 UTC
Borussia Mönchengladbach
SC Paderborn 07
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.79–1.00
Home win · Borussia Mönchengladbach
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 17 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 17 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 7 |
Model
55.5%
Bookie
48.1%
Edge
+7.3%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.1%)
14:30 UTC
FC Schalke 04
Leipzig
Likely 1–1 · xG 0.98–1.80
Away win · Leipzig
Model
56.3%
Bookie
51.8%
Edge
+4.5%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 5.9%)
14:30 UTC
FC Augsburg
SC Freiburg
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.51–1.47
Home win · FC Augsburg
Model
38.3%
Bookie
31.5%
Edge
+6.8%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.1%)
14:30 UTC
SV Werder Bremen
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.69–1.59
Home win · SV Werder Bremen
Model
40.2%
Bookie
33.5%
Edge
+6.7%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.0%)
14:30 UTC
Leverkusen
Stuttgart
Likely 2–1 · xG 2.12–1.36
Home win · Leverkusen
Model
54.6%
Bookie
53.3%
Edge
+1.3%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.2%)
14:30 UTC
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
Likely 1–1 · xG 1.52–1.11
Home win · Union Berlin
Model
46.3%
Bookie
37.0%
Edge
+9.3%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.2%)
16:30 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
Likely 2–1 · xG 2.10–1.10
Home win · Eintracht Frankfurt
Model
59.9%
Bookie
59.5%
Edge
+0.4%
Consensus of 23 bookmakers, margin removed (avg overround 6.3%)
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 16 |
| 12 |
| +4 |
| 13 |
| 5 | Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 12 |
|---|
| 6 | SV Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
|---|
| 7 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 |
|---|
| 8 | SV 07 Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 10 |
|---|
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 9 |
|---|
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 9 |
|---|
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 9 |
|---|
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
|---|
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
|---|
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 |
|---|
| 15 | Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
|---|
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
|---|
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 6 |
|---|
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 3 |
|---|